Fort Bend County Municipal Utility District No. 46

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.96. Morning rains have slightly increased the Brazos through Richmond; however, based on the forecasts the Brazos in Richmond should remain below Richmond Gage 10. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

This Week

As of 11 am, the early morning storms have produced as much as 3 inches of rainfall in the southern most portion of Fort Bend County with other portions of the County seeing between 0.3 to 1.5 inches. The remainder of Monday through Wednesday should be sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs approaching 80° and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. The region is expected to see another cold front Friday bringing an increased chance for rain Thursday and Friday. Based on the forecasts, the lower Brazos River Watershed including Fort Bend County could see 1.25 to 1.75 inches of rainfall over the next 7 days.

The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of the Tropical Disturbance over Central America to a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days. The good news is that the forecasts are continuing to show this system avoiding the Texas coastline and move through the western Gulf of Mexico in a clockwise rotation to the northeast. The system could bring additional moisture into our region, but this track keeps the heaviest rainfall to our east. Overall, the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could receive 1 to 2 inches over the next 7 days. We will continue to watch for changes in the forecast and provide updates as necessary.

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.28. Due to rainfall that occurred in the upper portions of the watershed, we are seeing slight rises within the Brazos. Through Fort Bend County, we should remain below Richmond Gage 10. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

This Week

Based on the forecasts, we will start the week warming back up in to the mid to high 80s and possibly into the low 90s before another cold pushes through our region on Wednesday. We have increased chances for rain over the next 3 days with our highest chance for rain occurring late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Throughout Wednesday our rain chances decrease with a sunny to partly cloudy conditions Thursday through Saturday. Overall, the 7-day precipitation forecast is showing the upper portions of the Brazos River watershed (Bryan/College Station/Brenham) receiving 2 to 2.5 inches of rain with the lower portions, through Fort Bend County, receiving around 1.5 inches.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is watching 2 disturbances located in the Atlantic. A third disturbance is located near the west coast of Central America. It is anticipated to move in a west to northwesterly direction across Honduras, Southern Belize and Northern Guatemala. We are watching this disturbances for any changes in its path; however, at this time it is not expected to impact our region.

Based on the forecasts, we do have the potential for increased tropical moisture due to the disturbance over the weekend, possible Sunday, and into early next week. It is too early to tell exactly how and if this disturbance will move through the western portion of the Gulf of Mexico, but the current forecasts are showing this system being potentially being pushed east of our region moving toward the Louisiana coast. This would keep much of the heavy rainfall east of Fort Bend County and the lower Brazos River watershed. Borrowing from HCFCD’s morning update:

NHC is currently monitoring this area for tropical cyclone development (20% chance over the next 5 days) and how organized this system becomes will ultimately determine rain chances for the upcoming weekend into early next week. A strong trough will likely be approaching the area early next week and if tropical moisture from the SW Gulf can become entrained into this feature, heavy rainfall would certainly be possible. Should a more well defined tropical system organize and track toward the Louisiana coast, then much of the heavy rainfall would be carried just east of our area. Plenty of time to watch and fine tune the forecast for this weekend into early next week.

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.41. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

This Week

Today’s front will be the first of two fronts as we anticipate an additional cold front to move through our region later this week. Our high temperatures will hit the low 80s to start our week with a mid-week jump into the low 90s. The second cold front will push our highs down into the 70s for the weekend. Our rain chances remain below 25% for the majority of the week with a 40% to 50% chance for rain on Friday. Overall the forecasts are showing Fort Bend County and the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than a ¼ inch of rain over the next 7 days.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is watching 2 disturbances located in the Atlantic. There are no threats to the Western Gulf of Mexico due to these disturbances.

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.98. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

This Week

Summer like conditions continue as we wait for our first cold front to move through the region. The forecast are showing signs of a possible cold front to move through next Monday. In the meantime, this week will include partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low 90s and heat indexes approaching 100°. The majority of the region will see limited to no rainfall with only a 20% chance of rain Thursday and Friday. Overall the 7 day forecast is showing less than ¼ inch for Fort Bend County and the entire lower Brazos River Watershed.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to track Hurricane Lorenzo which is located in the northcentral part of the Atlantic and continuing to move northeast. At this time, there are no threats to the Western Gulf of Mexico.

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.79. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River is anticipated.

This Week

Today is the Autumnal Equinox which marks the first day of fall. For today, we have a good chance for passing showers and thunderstorms. These storms could produce rainfall amounts upwards to 2 to 3 inches of rain in less than 2 hours. Based on the forecasts, the heaviest rainfall is anticipated to remain to our south and east; however, we will continue to monitor the conditions. Our rain chances for the remainder of the week drop below 20% with high temperatures around 90°. Overall the forecasts are showing Fort Bend County and the Lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ½ inch over the next 7 days.

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is continuing to track TS Jerry, TS Karen and Tropical Depression 13. At this time, there are no threats to the Western Gulf of Mexico due to these systems.

Reservoir Status

Below is a summary of the current Reservoir Status.

The majority of the region remains in a Flash Flood Watch through this evening due to the possibility of scatter showers and thunderstorms. Overall the activity is not anticipated to be as strong as the previous days. Based on the forecasts, Fort Bend County could receive less than 1 inch of rainfall over the next 24 with the majority of the lower Brazos River watershed seeing less than ½ inch. After today, the extended weather forecast is showing a return of sunny to mostly sunny skies with rain chances below 25% over the next 7 days. The only exception is Sunday, which currently has rain chances closer to 40%. Overall, the lower Brazos River Watershed is forecasted to receive less than 1 inch over the next 7 days.

According to the NWS, Imelda dropped over 40 inches of rainfall over 3 days in portions of the region which caused rapid flooding and severe damages. Fort Bend County received about 6 inches over the past 3 days. The majority of the rainfall in Fort Bend County fell over the past 24 hours which caused significant rises in many of our streams and ditches and excessive ponding in streets. The rainfall received across central Fort Bend County caused a 4.8 foot jump in the Brazos River in Richmond; however, the Brazos River has fallen 2 feet since the peak and should continue to fall back to our pre-event levels by the end of the weekend.

Imelda continues to produce severe flooding in the east and northeastern portions of the region with rainfall totals over the past 24 hours hitting over 20 inches. In Fort Bend County, our rainfall totals have come in less than anticipated. Over the past 48 hours, the peak rainfall across the County was around 4 inches in the Sugar Land Area with the majority of the County receiving on average between 0.5 to 1.5 inches.

Significant rainfall is continuing to fall in the northeast part of our region. Based on the forecasts, we could continue to see additional rain move through the entire region brining an additional 1 to 2 inches in portions of Fort Bend County. This morning the rain has picked up in the lower Brazos River Watershed, south of Bryan/College Station to Hempstead. Similar to Fort Bend County, the lower Brazos River Watershed could see 1 to 3 inches over the next 24 hours. With the possible precipitation, the WGRFC has updated their forecasts for the Brazos River, which currently shows gages from Hempstead to Richmond staying below Action Stage. Until this system completely moves out of the region, we will continue to monitor the conditions and provide updates if needed.

Overall the majority of the heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours stayed south and east of Fort Bend County. Tuesday rainfall totals hit as high as 16 to 20 inches in Brazoria and Matagorda Counties. Through Fort Bend County, the NWS observed between 1 to 4 inches with the heaviest rainfall falling over the Sugar Land / Missouri City areas.

Even with Imelda being downgraded to a Tropical Depression, the region continues to remain under a Flash Flood Watch or Warning with additional rainfall over the next 24 to 48 hours. There continues to be some uncertainty in the exact details of tonight’s forecast, but similar to yesterday, the heaviest rainfall should remain to our east, moving north. Overall the NWS is forecasting an additional 2 to 4 inches with the potential for isolated higher amounts through Fort Bend County over the next 24 hours. We will continue to watch for changes in the forecast throughout the day and provide additional updates as needed.