Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently in Action Stage at Gage Elevation 37.55 feet and slowly falling. No flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than 1 inch of rain over the next 7 days. See the attached Flood Risk Report.

The National Hurricane Center is watching 2 disturbances and Tropical Depression No. 2. Right now, our main focus is on Disturbance No. 2 which is located over the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance of forming over the next 48 hours and 60% chance over the next 5 days. As of this morning, there is no immediate threat to SE Texas, but there continues to be uncertainty in the impacts due to the lack of development of the system. We will continue to watch for changes in the forecast. Below is the latest NHC Graphic along with some additional information Jeff Lindner that we received this morning.

There has been little change in the overall organization with the broad elongated trough over the SW and S Gulf of Mexico over the last 24 hours. There continues to be no defined surface low pressure system at the surface and instead a broad trough axis extending from the coast of Mexico ESE across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in the area/region, but remain disorganized.

Global models continue to insist that a surface low will slowly and eventually form in this region toward the next or end of this week. Little motion is expected over the next 48-72 hours as steering currents remain weak, but a northward motion at an increasing forward speed is expected by Friday into the weekend. It will be important where the actual center forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week as to the eventual final track of 92L along with the position and intensity of high pressure ridges over the SW US and off the SE US coast and a departing trough over the US east coast. There is likely to be some degree of WSW/SW upper level wind shear over the western Gulf of Mexico as 92L begins to lift northward along with a large mass of dry air over TX that may become ingested into the circulation of the system. This points toward 92L having the majority of its associated moisture well to the east of any actual surface center and increases the potential for center re-locations toward the deeper convective masses on the eastern flank of the system.

In following with the increasingly consistency of the global model guidance and the general steering pattern later this week, a northward motion is expected toward the NW or NC Gulf coast. At this time is appears the majority of the weather and impacts associated with 92L will be east of SE TX, but due to the uncertainty on where the exact center forms there remains some degree of uncertainty on the local impacts and as always when dealing with any sort of tropical system, pay attention to forecasts daily for any changes.

The NHC currently gives 92L a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.

Elsewhere:

A brief tropical system may attempt to develop off the US east coast over the next 12-24 hours as satellite and radar images show a well defined circulation surrounded by showers and thunderstorms. Any development will likely be short lived and move generally away from the US east coast.

A tropical wave will exit Africa and while the wave looks impressive on satellite images, development is unlikely due to still cold June water temperatures.