Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently in Action Stage at Gage Elevation 26.22 feet and falling. The river experienced a minor increase early this morning due to heavy rain that occurred in the Richmond area. After a relatively dry period, wet conditions will resume with increased rain chances throughout the week and into the weekend. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving between 1 to 4 inches of rain over the next 7 days. The heaviest rainfall could occur over the next 24 to 48 hours. Based on the current forecast, no flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

See the attached Flood Risk Report.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently in Action Stage at Gage Elevation 35.25 feet and falling. A rare cold front will work its way through Texas increasing our rain chances, but the West Gulf River Forecast Center is not expecting any new river flooding. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving between 0.5 to 2 inches of rain over the next 7 days. Based on the current forecast, no flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

See the attached Flood Risk Report.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently in Action Stage at Gage Elevation 37.55 feet and slowly falling. No flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than 1 inch of rain over the next 7 days. See the attached Flood Risk Report.

The National Hurricane Center is watching 2 disturbances and Tropical Depression No. 2. Right now, our main focus is on Disturbance No. 2 which is located over the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance of forming over the next 48 hours and 60% chance over the next 5 days. As of this morning, there is no immediate threat to SE Texas, but there continues to be uncertainty in the impacts due to the lack of development of the system. We will continue to watch for changes in the forecast. Below is the latest NHC Graphic along with some additional information Jeff Lindner that we received this morning.

There has been little change in the overall organization with the broad elongated trough over the SW and S Gulf of Mexico over the last 24 hours. There continues to be no defined surface low pressure system at the surface and instead a broad trough axis extending from the coast of Mexico ESE across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in the area/region, but remain disorganized.

Global models continue to insist that a surface low will slowly and eventually form in this region toward the next or end of this week. Little motion is expected over the next 48-72 hours as steering currents remain weak, but a northward motion at an increasing forward speed is expected by Friday into the weekend. It will be important where the actual center forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week as to the eventual final track of 92L along with the position and intensity of high pressure ridges over the SW US and off the SE US coast and a departing trough over the US east coast. There is likely to be some degree of WSW/SW upper level wind shear over the western Gulf of Mexico as 92L begins to lift northward along with a large mass of dry air over TX that may become ingested into the circulation of the system. This points toward 92L having the majority of its associated moisture well to the east of any actual surface center and increases the potential for center re-locations toward the deeper convective masses on the eastern flank of the system.

In following with the increasingly consistency of the global model guidance and the general steering pattern later this week, a northward motion is expected toward the NW or NC Gulf coast. At this time is appears the majority of the weather and impacts associated with 92L will be east of SE TX, but due to the uncertainty on where the exact center forms there remains some degree of uncertainty on the local impacts and as always when dealing with any sort of tropical system, pay attention to forecasts daily for any changes.

The NHC currently gives 92L a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.

Elsewhere:

A brief tropical system may attempt to develop off the US east coast over the next 12-24 hours as satellite and radar images show a well defined circulation surrounded by showers and thunderstorms. Any development will likely be short lived and move generally away from the US east coast.

A tropical wave will exit Africa and while the wave looks impressive on satellite images, development is unlikely due to still cold June water temperatures.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently in Action Stage at Gage Elevation 41.91 feet. Based on the latest forecast, the Brazos River through Richmond should continue to fall through Thursday when upstream flows create an additional rise on the Brazos River. No flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ¼ inch over the next 7 days. See the attached Flood Risk Report.

The National Hurricane Center is watching a Disturbance (No. 1) that is currently located of the east coast of Central America. Currently, the National Hurricane Center shows a 0% chance of development over the next 2 days and a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Fort Bend County MUD No. 46 – Weather Update

The Brazos River is rising due to water flow from upstream and continued rainfall over the Brazos catchment area. The current river level projections indicate that the District may partially or fully lose gravity flow of rain water to the Flatbank Creek/Brazos River.

If this condition occurs, we are fully prepared to mobilize the District gator pumps to remove any rain water out of the District. Under the current projected scenario, we are fully equipped to avoid any structural flooding across the District. It is possible some isolated street flooding may occur, depending on rainfall intensity in the District while gravity flow is restricted. We will continue to provide drainage updates on the District and if any circumstances change.

Please be mindful while driving and never drive over flooded streets when water depth is unknown. Whenever possible please park vehicles off the road at a higher level to minimize any potential damage from street flooding.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 25.36 and falling. The initial rise was due to the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving between 2 to 5 inches on December 30 and 31. We should see the Brazos River in Richmond fall out of Action Stage by the middle of this week. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

2021 has started with cooler with no rain since heavy rainfall fell to end 2020. We should continue to see sunny to mostly sunny skies this week giving the area additional time to dry before additional rain moves through ahead of the next cold front. High temperatures for the majority of the week will be in the mid to upper 60s before the cold front moves through bring highs to the upper 50s. Lows will be in the upper 30s to low 50s through the end of the week. Our highest chances for rain this week will be Wednesday and then again on Sunday as 2 cold fronts push through the region. Over the next 7 days, the lower Brazos River watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than 1.5 inches of rain.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.36 and slightly continuing to fall from rainfall Richmond received on Sunday. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

Sunday brought cooler weather with the Richmond area seeing between 1 to 3 inches since Sunday morning. The cooler weather will remain through the week with a mixture of sunny to partly cloudy skies. High temperatures for the majority of the week will be in the mid to upper 50s with lows in the low to upper 30s. We will see warmer temperatures into the weekend. Over the next 7 days, the lower Brazos River watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than ½ inch of rain.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.47 and falling. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week will be warmer than the last few days with sunny to mostly sunny skies for most of the week. Our temperatures for the remainder of the week should consist of highs in the low/mid-70 with lows in the mid-40s to low 60s. Overall, the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County could see less than ½ inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 10.79 and falling. The Brazos River peaked on Sunday morning after the lower portions of the watershed received between 3 to 6 inches over the weekend. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

After a wet weekend, this week should clear up with the return of sunny, but cooler conditions. A cold front has caused the NWS to place Fort Bend County and the surrounding area in a Freeze warning from midnight tonight through 8 AM Tuesday Morning.

After the initial cold weather today and tomorrow, our temperatures for the remainder of the week should consist of highs in the low/mid-50s to the mid-60s with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. We do have another cold front moving through the region on Wednesday which is bringing higher rain chances Tuesday afternoon/evening into Wednesday afternoon. Overall, the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County could see between ½ to 1 inch of rainfall over the next 7 days.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.94. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week will start with similar dry conditions; however, the NWS Forecast includes wet conditions the second half of the week with heavy rainfall possible Friday and Saturday. High temperatures over the next 5 days will be as high as the low 80s with low temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s. Over the next 7 days, the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could receive 1 to 3 inches.

Reservoir Status