Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.94. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week will start with similar dry conditions; however, the NWS Forecast includes wet conditions the second half of the week with heavy rainfall possible Friday and Saturday. High temperatures over the next 5 days will be as high as the low 80s with low temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s. Over the next 7 days, the lower Brazos River Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could receive 1 to 3 inches.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.73. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should continue to consist of sunny to partly cloudy skies with highs in the mid to upper 70s into the low 80s and lows in the upper 40s to mid-60s. Our rain chances remain low over the next 7 days with our highest chances for rain closer into the weekend. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rain over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is tracking Hurricane Iota and Tropical Disturbance both located east of Central America. The National Hurricane Center does not expect either of these systems to impact the Texas Coast.

Reservoir Status

Proposed Storm Water Pump Station

The Board of Directors for Fort Bend County Municipal Utility District No. 46 (the “District”) has authorized the design of a storm water pump station facility to provide additional flood protection for residents of the District.  The District previously sold infrastructure bonds for the project in 2018, and the project is not anticipated to increase the District’s tax rate.

The proposed pump station will be located at the existing District drainage outfall structure south of Bethany Bay Drive and generally just northeast of the Elkins High School campus. See the site layout that has been provided.

Over the past several years, the District has experienced numerous high water events on the Brazos River and has had to bring in temporary pumps to evacuate accumulated rainfall from the District because of restricted gravity outfall during these Brazos River events.  The District engaged a study to determine the size of the pump station to minimize risk to residents of structural flooding in the District.  The proposed 29,000 gallon per minute pump station will only be in operation when gravity outfall is restricted.  The pump station will normally be operated on electrical power but the District is also including an emergency backup generator so that the pump station is still operational during electrical outages.  Construction of the pump station should begin Q1 2021 and is anticipated to be completed by the end of 2021.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 9.17. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week should continue to consist of sunny to mostly sunny skies with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the low 50s to upper 60s. Our rain chances remain low over the next 7 days with our highest chances for rain closer to Sunday into next Monday. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rain over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking Hurricane Eta which is currently located northeast of Nicaragua. The system is anticipated to become a Major Hurricane (Cat 3+) as it approaches the Nicaragua/Honduras Coast. Eta has the potential to bring catastrophic wind and heavy rainfall creating life-threating conditions and catastrophic damage to portions of Central America. The system is anticipated to weaken to a Tropical Depression on Wednesday as it works its way across Central America before moving back over the south Caribbean Sea. It has the potential to reform over the Caribbean Sea, but it is not anticipated to impact the Texas coast.

Reservoir Status

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 8.84. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

We will start the week with elevated rain chances due through Wednesday to a slow-moving front working its way through the region. Once the front passes, our rain chances drop with a return of cool, sunny weather. The cold front will drop our high temperatures in the low to upper 60s and our low temperatures in the low to upper 40s. Toward the weekend, our temperatures will reach highs in the low the mid-70s and lows in the low to upper 50s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ½ inch of rain over the next 7 days. The upper Brazos River Watershed could possibly receive 2 to 3 inches over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking TS Zeta which has formed east of the Yucatan Peninsula. The current forecast has Zeta reaching Hurricane strength later today or early tomorrow morning as it approaches the Yucatan. It is anticipated to move into the Gulf of Mexico before taking a north, northeastern turn potentially making landfall between central Louisiana and the Florida panhandle. Zeta is not expected to impact southeast Texas.

Reservoir Status

 

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently at Gage Elevation 11.99 and rising slightly. The Brazos River should peak below Action Stage around Gage Elevation 12.7. Based on the 7-day extended forecast, no flooding along the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

This Week

This week we have a minor chance for showers and scattered thunderstorms on Thursday, but generally this week should consist of sunny to mostly sunny/partly cloudy skies. Our high temperatures will be in the mid- to upper 80s with our low temperatures in the low 60s to low-70s. Based on the current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), the Lower Brazos Watershed, including Fort Bend County, could see less than a ¼ inch of rain over the next 7 days.

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center is currently tracking 2 storms (TS Gamma and TS Delta) that are in and near the Gulf of Mexico. TS Gamma is currently located north of the Yucatan Peninsula and is anticipated to dissipate off the Yucatan later this week with no impacts to the Texas coast. TS Delta is currently south of the Caribbean Islands moving in a northwest direction. We are continuing to watch TS Delta, but currently it is anticipated to eventually move in a northerly direction making landfall somewhere between Louisiana and the Florida panhandle.

Reservoir Status

Tropical Storm Beta UPDATE: 9/19/20 6:45pm

Tropical Storm Beta has tightened up projections on path and rainfall. As of now, we are seeing a path into Matagorda County and moving Northeast along the coast of Texas and into Louisiana. Rains in the Fort Bend County area are to begin Sunday morning and progress throughout the week dropping a projected 4-6” over 5 days into Thursday 9/24. LMS is making final preparations in all districts per LID EAPs and will patrol each district throughout the week to insure proper drainage.

The Brazos River is currently still below Action Stage, sitting at 14ft which allows all districts to be able to drain water via gravity flow. At this time, predictions are showing the rainfall along the Brazos River watershed to be minimal, so it is possible we will remain on gravity flow for the duration of this Tropical Storm. Please note, as always, during high intensity rains you can expect high water throughout the district and severe street flooding until areas are able to drain.

Please refer to the Fort Bend County Homeland Security and Emergency Management website for accurate information throughout the week.

Tropical Depression No. 22

There remains significant uncertainty the track for Tropical Depression No. 22. We should anticipate more changes in its forecast, but currently the Greater Houston area is within the Cone of Uncertainty. The forecast shows TD 22 moving in a NW direction over the western Gulf of Mexico as it strengthens into a Tropical Storm (Wilfred) today or possibly tomorrow morning. By Saturday, conditions could push TD 22 in a western direction toward the south Texas coast potentially reaching Hurricane Strength as it stalls off the south Texas Coast. This storm due to its movement could bring some Tropical Storm Force Winds t the central and south Texas coastal areas, but water (storm surge and rain) is the biggest threat to this system. These impacts could start as early as Sunday night into Monday morning as squalls begin to approach the coast. The heaviest amounts of rain are currently along and off the coast with 10 to 12 inches and widespread amounts in the 15 to 20 inches over the Gulf of Mexico. The current 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) has the western portions of our Region, including Fort Bend, Harris, and Waller Counties, possibly receiving between 2 to 6 inches over the next 7 days. The majority of this rainfall could occur Sunday evening into Thursday morning. Based on the uncertainty, these rainfall amounts will likely change.

As mentioned, there is currently low confidence in the overall track and development of TD 22 and changes in this forecast are possible. The District’s Engineer and Operator are continuing to monitor the conditions. The District’s facilities are operational and ready if needed.

We encourage everyone to stay informed by visiting your favorite local weather source, including the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, and West Gulf River Forecast Center. If you have not ready done so, please remember to sign up for Emergency Updates from Fort Bend County.