Weekly Brazos River Outlook – TS Nicholas Updates

The Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage Elevation 12.1 feet. The region continues to monitor TS Nicholas. Based on the latest forecast, the biggest threat for the Lower Brazos River watershed is localized flood impacts due to heavy rainfall and intensities of 3 to 4 inches per hour. Flash flood conditions, including street ponding and rapid rises in drainage systems are possible. The WGRFC’s current forecast is showing the Brazos River staying below Action Stage peaking around Gage Elevation 12.1. The forecast includes the next 48 hours of rainfall and is subject to change based on the actual rainfall amounts received.

The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving widespread 2 to 10 inches with areas receiving isolated higher amounts. Although this is the 7-day estimated totals, the majority of this rainfall should occur Monday through Wednesday.  Based on the current forecast, no flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated. As mentioned, the current threat from Nicholas is localized flash flood conditions resulting in street ponding and rapid rises in drainage systems. The exact locations of the most severe rainfall and impacts are unclear. Residents across the region are encouraged to stay weather aware through their preferred source (i.e. National Weather Service, Space City Weather, and Local News).

See the attached Flood Risk Report.

Potential Upcoming Significant Rainfall

As you may be aware, local weather forecasts are currently projecting potentially significant rainfall in our region.  The MUD 46 Board and operational team are closely monitoring the weather.  Recent models indicate the potential for anywhere from 3″ to as much as 12″ of total rainfall in the coming week, with potential bursts of intense rainfall in a short amount of time.  Thankfully, Brazos River levels are currently low, and the ground is dry and should be able to absorb rainfall efficiently, at least initially.

All MUD 46 drainage facilities, including supplemental pumps, are fully operational and ready to be deployed if necessary.  Your levee management and operators are monitoring the situation very closely and will take appropriate actions to manage the situation to the best of our hardware capabilities.

We encourage all residents to monitor the local forecast and take appropriate precautions, such as moving any garbage cans and parked cars off of the street prior to projected rainfall, and to never drive into high water.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook – September 7, 2021

The Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage Elevation 10.27 feet. The NWS forecast is calling for a sunny, dry week with rain chances possibly increasing into the weekend. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ½  inch of rain over the next 7 days. Based on the current forecast, no flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

The National Hurricane Center is watching the tropical disturbance that is located in the Gulf of Mexico. The system is expected to move northeast toward the Florida panhandle but we are continuing to watch for changes in the forecast. At this time, there are no immediate threats to Southeast Texas; however, we are in the peak of our normal Hurricane Season. Residents along the Texas Coast are encouraged to stay informed through their preferred source (i.e. National Weather Service, Space City Weather, and Local News).

See the attached Flood Risk Report.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook – August 30, 2021

The Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage Elevation 13.05 feet. We have increased rain changes Wednesday and Thursday; however, most of the week should consist of warmer and drier conditions. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ½  inch of rain over the next 7 days. Based on the current forecast, no flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

Tropical Storm Ida continues to push through the United States. In addition to Ida, the National Hurricane Center is currently watching 2 tropical disturbances and Tropical Depression No. 10. Disturbance No. 1 and Tropical Depression No. 10 are not anticipated to impact the Gulf of Mexico. We are watching Disturbance No 2 which is located south of the Caribbean Islands. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 20% chance of developing over the next 5 days. At this time, there are no immediate threats to Southeast Texas; however, we are approaching the traditional peak of Hurricane Season. Residents along the Texas Coast are encouraged to watch for changes in the forecasts and stay up to date through you preferred source (i.e. National Weather Service, Space City Weather, and Local News).

See the attached Flood Risk Report.

Tropics Update – 08/26 @ 7:30 AM

We are continuing to watch Invest 99L. The system is currently located south of the Caribbean Island which is becoming better organized as it moves in a northwesterly direction. The National Hurricane Center anticipates the system could develop into a tropical depression or storm later today as it moves its way into the Gulf of Mexico. Over the past 24 hours, modeling has come into better agreement for possible landfall east of the Houston area along the Louisiana Coast. Please note that there is still enough uncertainty in the forecast so no one can rule out possible impacts along southeast Texas. We encourage residents to remain weather aware by following their preferred weather source (i.e. National Weather Service, Space City Weather, and Local News).

We continue to have increased rain chances over the next few days. The 3-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) shows Fort Bend County possibly receiving between ½ to 1 inch of rain over the next 3 days. The extended forecast (beyond 3 days) continues to be heavily influenced by the development and track of Invest 99L. We still have increased rain changes in the extended forecast, but with the path trending toward Louisiana the rainfall totals for the next 7 days have decreased over the past 24 hours. Currently, the 7-Day QPF is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving between 0.10 to 3 inches of rain over the next 7 days with Fort Bend County potentially seeing 1.5 to 3 inches of rain over the next 7 days. Based on the current forecast, no flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

Notice of Public Hearing on Tax Rate

The Fort Bend County MUD No. 46 will hold a public hearing on a proposed tax rate for the tax year 2021 on September 28, 2021 at 11:00 AM at 9 Greenway Plaza, Ste. 1000; Houston, Texas 77046 and via Zoom Meeting at https://us06web.zoom.us/j/87685156752. Your individual taxes may increase at a greater or lesser rate, or even decrease, depending on the tax rate that is adopted and on the change in the taxable value of your property in relation to the change in taxable value of all other property.

The change in the taxable value of your property in relation to the change in the taxable value of all other property determines the distribution of the tax burden among all property owners.

Click here to read notice.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook – August 23, 2021

The Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage Elevation 11.4 feet. Toward the end of the week we could see a slight increase in water levels on the Brazos River due to upstream rainfall and reservoir releases making their way through the lower Brazos River. The NWS is forecasting drier conditions to start the week with increased rain changes into the Weekend. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than 1 inch of rain over the next 7 days. Based on the current forecast, no flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

The National Hurricane Center is currently watching 3 tropical disturbances. At this time, there are no immediate threats to Southeast Texas; however, we are approaching the traditional peak of Hurricane Season. Residents along the Texas Coast are encouraged to watch for changes in the forecasts and stay up to date through you preferred source (i.e. National Weather Service, Space City Weather, and Local News).

See the attached Flood Risk Report.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook – August 16, 2021

The Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage Elevation 11.69 feet. We have rain chances through Thursday with temperatures gradually climbing into the weekend. The end of the week and weekend will depend on Grace’s final path and development. At this time, Grace is anticipated to continue moving in a more westerly direction, possible moving into Mexico, south of Brownsville, over the weekend. Although Grace is currently not expected to impact southeast Texas, as with any storms moving through the Gulf, residents are encouraged to watch for changes in the forecasts and stay up to date through you preferred source (i.e. National Weather Service, Space City Weather, and Local News).

The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving between ¼ inch and 1 ¼ of rain over the next 7 days. Based on the current forecast, no flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

See the attached Flood Risk Report.

Tropical Weather Outlook

 The National Hurricane Center is continuing to track Fred, Grace, and Tropical Depression No. 8. At this time, none of these storms are predicted to impact southeast Texas, but we are continuing to watch Grace.  Below is an August 16 summary from HCFCD on TS Grace:

USAF missions fixed the center of Grace just south of the southern coast of the Dominican Republic this morning, but the system remains disorganized with scattered to sporadic deep convection near and mainly south of the fixed center. Grace continues to move westward at around 15mph and Grace has tracked south of the expected forecast over the last 24 hours allowing the system to miss Puerto Rico and largely miss the Dominican Republic.

 Track

The weaker and disorganized system continues to track south of both the forecast track and model guidance 24 hours ago. Strong deep layer ridging north of Grace will continue a westward motion with the system passing near or just north of Jamaica and then south of Cuba over the next 48 hours. Since it now appears that Grace will largely miss most of the Caribbean Islands, it is unlikely that Grace will dissipate. Global and hurricane guidance aides have been trending southward over the last 24 hours in response to a weaker Grace and also the westward expansion of a strong deep layer ridge along the US Gulf coast late this week into this weekend. Nearly all of the guidance keeps Grace moving almost due west into the southern Gulf of Mexico by late this week and then into the SW or W Gulf of Mexico by Friday or Saturday. The CMC is a northern outlier right now showing a threat to southern TX late this week. The NHC track is just north of the multi model consensus and some additional south adjustments will likely be needed to the track over the next 24 hours.

 While there is building model consensus that Grace will generally remain well south of the upper TX coast, it is important to monitor forecasts for any changes especially since the current state of the system is disorganized and a new or better defined center could form.

 Intensity

While Grace is not directly moving over the islands of the Greater Antilles, the circulation is being impacted by the higher nearby mountains. Intensity guidance does little with Grace for the next 48 hours, even as the system moves over the warm waters of the NW Caribbean Sea. However, once in the southern Gulf of Mexico the hurricane models show significant intensification of Grace and the latest run of the GFS has followed that direction also. Several of the CMC and GFS ensembles show intensification into a hurricane over the SW/W Gulf of Mexico as Grace nears the Mexican coast. Given seemingly favorable upper level and sea surface conditions along the path of Grace over the southern Gulf tends to support some of the stronger solutions and tropical systems in this area of the Gulf tend to have a history of quick development. NHC is currently indicating Grace nearing the Mexican coast as a tropical storm, but a hurricane is certainly possible.

 TX Impacts

No direct impacts of Grace are currently expected on the upper TX coast, however depending on the size of the wind field once in the Gulf of Mexico, some large swells and higher coastal tides may be possible. Greater impacts with squalls and higher seas appears more likely along the lower TX coast into the weekend.

 As always with tropical systems, check forecasts frequently for changes.  

Weekly Brazos River Outlook – August 9, 2021

The Brazos River in Richmond is at Gage Elevation 14.29 feet and falling. We have minor rain chances throughout the week, but rainfall amounts are generally low. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ¼ inch of rain over the next 7 days. Based on the current forecast, no flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated.

See the attached Flood Risk Report.

Tropical Weather Outlook

The National Hurricane Center is tracking 2 Disturbances in the Atlantic, Disturbance No. 1 (Invest 94L) and Disturbance No. 2 (Invest 93L). Below is a summary from HCFCD this morning on Invest 94L.

Strong tropical wave (94L) currently approaching Barbados this morning.

An area of elongated low pressure that moved west over the weekend from the western end of the monsoon trough over the eastern and central Atlantic is nearing the Windward Islands this morning. Radar from Barbados along with satellite images show a broad and elongated area of low pressure with scattered to numerous areas of disorganized convection. The system lacks current organization to be declared a tropical depression. 94L is moving generally W to WNW at around 10mph and this motion will continue with a sprawling sub-tropical high located over the central and southwest Atlantic inducing a general E to ESE steering flow. This is supported by the major global models guidance and much of the ensemble products which bring 94L along much of the Lesser Antilles Island chain over the next 5 days. Details on the exact track will be important as to determine how much the system will interact with the island chain. Overall guidance keeps 94L on the weak side through the period likely due to land interaction and dry air that surrounds the system to the north.

The NHC currently has development odds into a tropical cyclone at 70% over the next 5 days.

While the system is currently no immediate threat to the Gulf of Mexico, residents should at least keep an eye on the forecast for updates over the next week.