Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently in Action Stage at Gage Elevation 37.55 feet and slowly falling. No flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than 1 inch of rain over the next 7 days. See the attached Flood Risk Report.

The National Hurricane Center is watching 2 disturbances and Tropical Depression No. 2. Right now, our main focus is on Disturbance No. 2 which is located over the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance of forming over the next 48 hours and 60% chance over the next 5 days. As of this morning, there is no immediate threat to SE Texas, but there continues to be uncertainty in the impacts due to the lack of development of the system. We will continue to watch for changes in the forecast. Below is the latest NHC Graphic along with some additional information Jeff Lindner that we received this morning.

There has been little change in the overall organization with the broad elongated trough over the SW and S Gulf of Mexico over the last 24 hours. There continues to be no defined surface low pressure system at the surface and instead a broad trough axis extending from the coast of Mexico ESE across the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop in the area/region, but remain disorganized.

Global models continue to insist that a surface low will slowly and eventually form in this region toward the next or end of this week. Little motion is expected over the next 48-72 hours as steering currents remain weak, but a northward motion at an increasing forward speed is expected by Friday into the weekend. It will be important where the actual center forms in the southern Gulf of Mexico later this week as to the eventual final track of 92L along with the position and intensity of high pressure ridges over the SW US and off the SE US coast and a departing trough over the US east coast. There is likely to be some degree of WSW/SW upper level wind shear over the western Gulf of Mexico as 92L begins to lift northward along with a large mass of dry air over TX that may become ingested into the circulation of the system. This points toward 92L having the majority of its associated moisture well to the east of any actual surface center and increases the potential for center re-locations toward the deeper convective masses on the eastern flank of the system.

In following with the increasingly consistency of the global model guidance and the general steering pattern later this week, a northward motion is expected toward the NW or NC Gulf coast. At this time is appears the majority of the weather and impacts associated with 92L will be east of SE TX, but due to the uncertainty on where the exact center forms there remains some degree of uncertainty on the local impacts and as always when dealing with any sort of tropical system, pay attention to forecasts daily for any changes.

The NHC currently gives 92L a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days.

Elsewhere:

A brief tropical system may attempt to develop off the US east coast over the next 12-24 hours as satellite and radar images show a well defined circulation surrounded by showers and thunderstorms. Any development will likely be short lived and move generally away from the US east coast.

A tropical wave will exit Africa and while the wave looks impressive on satellite images, development is unlikely due to still cold June water temperatures.

Pump Station Update

All construction plans and contracts are finalized and public advertising for the pump station construction project has commenced. With Board review, approval and assumed award of the contract this month, the project should be under construction by September 2021.

Weekly Brazos River Outlook

The Brazos River in Richmond is currently in Action Stage at Gage Elevation 41.91 feet. Based on the latest forecast, the Brazos River through Richmond should continue to fall through Thursday when upstream flows create an additional rise on the Brazos River. No flooding due to the Brazos River through Fort Bend County is anticipated. The 7-Day Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) is showing the lower Brazos River Watershed receiving less than ¼ inch over the next 7 days. See the attached Flood Risk Report.

The National Hurricane Center is watching a Disturbance (No. 1) that is currently located of the east coast of Central America. Currently, the National Hurricane Center shows a 0% chance of development over the next 2 days and a 20% chance of development over the next 5 days.

Fort Bend County MUD No. 46 – Weather Update

The Brazos River is rising due to water flow from upstream and continued rainfall over the Brazos catchment area. The current river level projections indicate that the District may partially or fully lose gravity flow of rain water to the Flatbank Creek/Brazos River.

If this condition occurs, we are fully prepared to mobilize the District gator pumps to remove any rain water out of the District. Under the current projected scenario, we are fully equipped to avoid any structural flooding across the District. It is possible some isolated street flooding may occur, depending on rainfall intensity in the District while gravity flow is restricted. We will continue to provide drainage updates on the District and if any circumstances change.

Please be mindful while driving and never drive over flooded streets when water depth is unknown. Whenever possible please park vehicles off the road at a higher level to minimize any potential damage from street flooding.

Fort Bend County Alert – Emergency Alerts and Warnings

Get alerted about emergencies and other important community news by signing up for Fort Bend County’s Emergency Alert Program. This system enables Fort Bend County to provide you with critical information quickly in a variety of situations, such as severe weather, unexpected road closures, missing persons and evacuations of buildings or neighborhoods.

You will receive time-sensitive messages wherever you specify, such as your home, mobile or business phones, email address, text messages and more. You pick where, you pick how.

Attention: FEMA Risk Rating 2.0 (Flood Insurance Premiums)

On April 1st, the Federal Emergency Management Agency (“FEMA”) released the first official communication on the redesign of the National Flood Insurance Program (“NFIP”)’s rating system.

The new pricing methodology, known as Risk Rating 2.0, utilizes the latest technology available to assess the flood risk of a property. Phase 1 of the new program begins on October 1, 2021.

In its announcement, FEMA shared a state-by-state breakdown of Risk Rating 2.0’s impact on flood insurance premiums. According to FEMA, Texas will see the following impact:

  • 14% of Texas residents with an existing flood insurance policy will see an immediate decrease in their flood insurance premium;
  • 79% of Texas residents with an existing flood insurance policy will see an immediate increase in their flood insurance premium that could range from $0 to $10 per month;
  • 3% of Texas residents with an existing flood insurance policy will see an immediate increase in their flood insurance premium of $10 to $20 per month; and
  • 4% of Texas residents with an existing flood insurance policy will see an immediate increase in their flood insurance premium greater than $20 per month.

We do not yet know how Risk Rating 2.0 will impact flood insurance prices in Fort Bend County MUD No. 46. However, if you already have flood insurance, you are grandfathered into how fast your flood insurance premium can increase. It is federally mandated that a flood insurance premium cannot increase by more than 18% per year. Therefore, we encourage you to get flood insurance. You can do so by contacting your home insurance provider. Since a flood insurance policy takes 30 days to go into effect, you must purchase your policy by September 1, 2021, for your policy to become effective prior to the effective date of Risk Rating 2.0 (October 1, 2021).

Additional information regarding risk rating 2.0 can be found at the following link: Risk Rating 2.0: Equity in Action | FEMA.gov

Storm Water Pump Station Update

The storm water pump station final plat is receiving final City signatures and associated municipal permits with the project have all been obtained by the District.

The City of Missouri City has approved the final construction drawings and the District should receive the signed plans the week of March 29th.

Pending resolution of any last-minute design improvements along with project advertisement, bidding, and contractor award schedule; it is anticipated construction on the facility will commence early Summer 2021.